The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has forecast that rainy conditions will continue to dominate most parts of Indonesia over the next seven days, from 27 December 2025 to 2 January 2026.
Based on BMKG’s 24-hour accumulated rainfall prediction, moderate to heavy rain is still expected in many regions, particularly across Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. The agency stated that there is currently no indication of very heavy or extreme rainfall during this period.
However, BMKG urged the public to remain vigilant. Repeated heavy rainfall over consecutive days could increase the risk of flooding and landslides, especially in areas with a history of hydrometeorological disasters.
BMKG noted that rainfall distribution from late December 2025 to early January 2026 is expected to be relatively even. Rain intensity is forecast to range from light to heavy, with heavier rain occurring intermittently in certain locations.
“The New Year period coincides with the peak of the rainy season in Indonesia,” said Guswanto, Deputy for Meteorology at BMKG, when contacted on Monday, 29 December 2025, as quoted by Detiknews.
“Heavy rainfall generally occurs between December and February.”
According to Guswanto, the continued rainfall indicates that the rainy season remains active nationwide and may affect public activities, particularly during the year-end and New Year holidays.
Greater Jakarta and Regional Rainfall Outlook
BMKG specifically highlighted the Greater Jakarta area, known as Jabodetabek, as one of the regions expected to experience persistent rainfall through the end of 2025 and into early 2026.
“Greater Jakarta is expected to experience continued rain from late December 2025 to early January 2026,” Guswanto said.
For the period from Saturday to Sunday, 27–28 December 2025, BMKG predicted heavy rain in several provinces. These include North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Jambi, South Sumatra, and Bengkulu, as well as West Java, East Java, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Sulawesi.
During the same period, moderate rainfall is forecast in Aceh, Lampung, Banten, Central Java, the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Bali, Kalimantan, other parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
From Sunday to Monday, 28–29 December 2025, heavy rain is expected to persist in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, the Riau Islands, Bengkulu, West Java, and East Nusa Tenggara. Moderate rain is forecast across Central Java, Jakarta, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Bali–West Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and Papua.
BMKG also predicted further heavy rainfall from Monday to Tuesday, 29–30 December 2025, in Bengkulu, Banten, Central Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi. Other regions, including most of Java, Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua, are still likely to experience rain.
From Tuesday to Wednesday, 30–31 December 2025, heavy rain is forecast in North Sumatra and East Kalimantan. Moderate rain is expected in Java, Bali–Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and Papua, particularly in the afternoon and evening.
In the lead-up to and during New Year’s Eve celebrations, BMKG predicted heavy rainfall in Aceh, Central Java, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, West Papua, Papua, and Central Papua. BMKG advised the public to consider weather conditions when planning outdoor activities.
For Thursday to Friday, 1–2 January 2026, heavy rain may occur in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Bengkulu, Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, and Central Papua. Other regions are expected to receive moderate rainfall.
BMKG stated that it will continue to monitor atmospheric dynamics and update forecasts as needed. The agency encouraged the public to follow official weather information and remain alert to potential weather-related disruptions during the holiday period.
cover: Photo by Shafira Amadea on Unsplash
