The Indonesian rupiah remained under pressure against the United States dollar, briefly reaching IDR 17,300 before recovering slightly by the end of the trading week.
On Friday, 24 April 2026, the currency strengthened by 57 points, or 0.33 per cent, to close at IDR 17,229 per US dollar on the spot market.
Market projections suggest the rupiah will continue to fluctuate within the range of IDR 17,180 to IDR 17,400 per US dollar in the coming week. The recent movement has drawn attention due to its deviation from the government’s macroeconomic assumptions.
At the same time, global oil prices increased sharply.
According to Reuters, Brent crude rose by US$3.16, or 3.1 per cent, to US$105.07 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed US$2.89, or 3.11 per cent, to US$95.85 per barrel. Prices had earlier surged by as much as US$5 per barrel during Thursday’s session before easing.
These developments contrast with the assumptions set in the 2026 State Budget, which projected oil prices at around US$70 per barrel and the rupiah at approximately IDR 16,500 per US dollar.
Fiscal Impact and Budget Pressure
The gap between assumptions and actual conditions is expected to affect the state budget. Higher oil prices increase the cost of energy subsidies, while a weaker rupiah raises the cost of imports, particularly for energy commodities that rely on foreign supply.
As a result, government financing needs may rise beyond initial projections. The situation indicates mounting fiscal pressure and could widen the budget deficit if the trend continues.
Despite these developments, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the rupiah’s movement does not reflect a weakening of Indonesia’s economic fundamentals.
“I do not think this is a sign of deterioration or is triggered by a worsening domestic economy. Compared to other countries, we are still strong. Even compared to Malaysia, Thailand, and others, we are still strong,” he said in Jakarta on Friday, 24 April.
Government Response and Economic Outlook
The government maintains that the national economy remains stable. Purbaya said structural reforms are ongoing to address long-standing constraints on growth.
“But what is clear is that our economic foundations have not changed. In fact, it will accelerate because we will be more serious about improving. We are addressing the economic constraints,” he said.
The government is targeting economic growth of 5.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, in line with a full-year target of 6 per cent. To support this, it plans to accelerate state spending in order to sustain momentum.
Indonesia’s external position remains supported by a trade surplus that has continued for 70 consecutive months as of early 2026. Domestically, household consumption remains stable, inflation is controlled, and fiscal management is described as disciplined.
