The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned of potential heavy rainfall in several regions during the 2026 Eid homecoming period.
The forecast was presented at the Eid al-Fitr Preparation Coordination Meeting held at the Mutiara Auditorium, Police Science College, South Jakarta, on Monday (2 March 2026). The briefing was delivered by BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani.
According to BMKG, weather conditions during the first half of March require vigilance. The agency predicts that the Eid holiday period will generally be dominated by light to moderate rain. However, heavy rainfall may occur in parts of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and the Papua Highlands.
“The BMKG continues to analyse and monitor atmospheric conditions on an ongoing basis, and consistently provides timely early weather warnings to support public safety and activities during the Eid al-Fitr holiday period,” Faisal said.
He stated that rainfall in March remains moderate to high, with a very high chance of rain in West Java, Central Java, South Sulawesi and Central Papua. Rainfall in April is also forecast to remain moderate to high, with a very high chance in Central Papua.
BMKG said several atmospheric factors are influencing current conditions, including the Asian Monsoon, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and atmospheric waves. The agency also noted the potential formation of tropical cyclones in southern Indonesia, including Tropical Cyclone 90S, currently observed in the Indian Ocean southwest of Lampung.
Regional Rainfall Forecast for March
For 1–10 March 2026, most regions are expected to experience light to moderate rainfall. There is a possibility of moderate to heavy rain in:
- Banten
- Jakarta
- West Java
- Central Java
- DI Yogyakarta
- East Kalimantan
- South Sulawesi
- East Nusa Tenggara
For 11–20 March and 21–31 March 2026, light to moderate rain is expected to continue. Heavy rainfall may occur in:
- Lampung
- West Java
- Central Java
- East Nusa Tenggara
- Papua Mountains
BMKG urged the public and relevant authorities to monitor updates, particularly in areas prone to flooding and landslides.
Mitigation Measures and Weather Monitoring
As part of hydrometeorological disaster mitigation efforts, BMKG and the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) are implementing Weather Modification Operations (OMC) on a situational basis.
One focus is the planned OMC on 17–18 March 2026 to secure homecoming routes at key ports, including Merak–Bakauheni and Gilimanuk–Ketapang.
The operation aims to reduce the risk of long queues caused by adverse weather. Funding support is planned through PT Pelni’s corporate social responsibility programme.
BMKG has also prepared integrated information platforms to support transport safety. These include Digital Weather for Traffic (DWT) for land routes, Ina-SIAM for aviation and InaWIS for shipping and ports.
The agency has activated 38 regional technical units and established command posts at the central level, toll road rest areas and joint command posts at 15 ports and 96 airports.
