Foreign tourists visiting Bali during June may expect dry, sunny days. However, rainfall has still been observed, and this aligns with the latest forecast from Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), which states that the dry season’s onset has shifted.
According to the Head of the Bali Climatology Station, Aminudin Al Roniri, the peak of the dry season in Bali is now projected to occur later than usual. “The peak of the dry season in 2025 is predicted to occur in July 2025 and August 2025,” he said, as reported by detikBali.
BMKG has confirmed that the beginning of the dry season in 2025 has been delayed across multiple regions. The agency previously forecast the onset earlier in the year, but updates show a slower-than-expected seasonal transition, especially in Java, Bali, and the Nusa Tenggara islands.
This delay is measured in “dasarians” (ten-day periods used in meteorological tracking). Java has seen a delay of 3–5 dasarians, while Bali and Nusa Tenggara experienced delays of 2–4 dasarians.
Despite the transition into the dry season, the BMKG highlights that relatively wet atmospheric conditions are still present in various regions, due to a combination of tropical dynamics, topography, and equatorial wave activities such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), active Kelvin waves, Equatorial Rossby waves, and the formation of tropical cyclone seed 92W.
“These factors can cause localised rain with moderate to heavy intensity in the afternoon to evening, accompanied by short-duration thunder and lightning,” the BMKG said in a statement released on Saturday, 7 June 2025.
Only 25% of Indonesia Has Entered the Dry Season
Out of Indonesia’s 699 seasonal zones, only 171 (or approximately 25 percent)had officially entered the dry season as of late June. The majority, around 59 percent or 415 zones, remain in the rainy season, while the remaining 112 zones are undergoing a type 1 rainy season, which consists of alternating wet and dry phases.
The BMKG shared the list of regions that have begun the dry season via its official Instagram account @infobmkg on 24 June 2025. These include:
- Small parts of Aceh, Bengkulu, Riau, and Jambi
- South Sumatra and most of North and West Sumatra
- Areas in West Java, Central Java, Banten, and East Java
- Northwest and southern Bali
- East and West Nusa Tenggara (NTT and NTB)
- Small parts of Gorontalo, West, Central, South and Southeast Sulawesi
- Small regions of West Papua
In contrast, Supari, Coordinator of BMKG’s Climate Variability Analysis Division, explained that many areas across the archipelago are still experiencing rain. “Rainfall in the first dasarian of July 2025 is in the low to medium criteria, which is around 0–150 mm per day,” Supari said, as reported by Kompas.com on Saturday, 21 June 2025.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index was recorded at -0.70 in early June, while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stood at -0.11. “IOD is predicted to be neutral until the second semester of 2025. Likewise ENSO, it is predicted to remain neutral until the second semester of 2025,” Supari added.
Rain is expected to persist in early to mid-July in certain regions, particularly:
- (1–10 July): parts of NTT, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Maluku, Southwest Papua, West Papua, and Central Papua.
- (11–20 July): West Sumatra, parts of West Java, NTT, Sulawesi (West, South, Central, North), Maluku, Southwest Papua, West Papua, Central Papua, and Papua.
Although dry season onset has begun in several areas, the BMKG urges the public to remain cautious. The dynamic nature of the atmosphere means that unexpected weather conditions, including heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves, are still possible.
“The public is advised to remain vigilant about the potential for extreme weather and to continue monitoring weather information from official sources,” the BMKG concluded.
